What Future Awaits the European Union in a Changing Global Landscape?

The European Union faces a crossroads shaped by geopolitical crises, security challenges, and internal political tensions. Originally founded as an economic community to secure peace and prosperity, the EU now confronts the urgent need to evolve into a stronger political and security actor on the global stage. The war in Ukraine and shifting international dynamics have exposed the limits of the current EU model, especially its reliance on NATO and the United States for defense.

The Rise of a Geopolitical Union

The EU is moving toward becoming a geopolitical union, a hybrid model that balances deep economic integration with a stronger foreign and security policy. This shift reflects the need for the EU to protect its interests independently, rather than relying heavily on external powers. The war in Ukraine has been a wake-up call, showing that the EU must coordinate defense efforts more closely while respecting national sovereignty.

Key developments supporting this trend include:

• Enhanced defense cooperation and coordination: EU countries are increasing joint military exercises and sharing intelligence to improve readiness.

• Strategic autonomy: The EU aims to reduce dependence on external suppliers for critical technologies and energy.

• Unified diplomatic efforts: The EU is working to present a common stance on international conflicts and sanctions.

  
  

In this way, the EU can act more decisively on the world stage while maintaining the economic benefits of integration.

European Parliament building in Brussels with EU member flags

Multi-Speed European Union: Flexibility with Risks

Another important trend is the emergence of a multi-speed Europe, where some member states pursue deeper integration while others prefer a slower pace. This differentiated integration is already visible in areas such as the eurozone, Schengen, and defense cooperation. This approach offers flexibility, allowing countries to cooperate at different levels depending on their political will and capacities.

For example:

• Countries like Germany, France, and the Netherlands are pushing for stronger defense and fiscal integration.

• Others, such as Hungary and, to a more selective extent, Poland, are cautious about ceding sovereignty, particularly in areas related to political governance and the rule of law.

  
  

While this model helps keep the EU together despite differing views, it risks creating divisions that could weaken unity. The challenge will be managing these differences without institutionalizing divisions that could fragment the union over time.

Why a Federal Europe Remains Unlikely

The idea of a fully federal European Union, with a common army and centralized government, has long been debated. However, this vision faces significant obstacles today:

• Lack of political consensus: Many member states are reluctant to give up sovereignty over defense and foreign policy.

• Public skepticism: Citizens in several countries show limited support for deeper political integration.

• Diverse national interests: Economic and cultural differences make a one-size-fits-all federal model difficult.

  
  

Instead, the EU is more likely to strengthen its institutions gradually, especially in areas like the rule of law and security cooperation, without moving toward full federalism.

Strengthening Institutions While Respecting Sovereignty

The EU’s future depends on finding a balance between integration and national sovereignty. Strengthening common institutions can enhance the EU’s capacity to respond more effectively to challenges such as:

• Upholding democratic values and the rule of law

• Coordinating responses to security threats and cyberattacks

• Managing migration and border control

  
  

For instance, the European Commission has taken a firmer stance on rule of law concerns in some member states, including Poland and Hungary, linking funding to compliance. Similarly, the EU is expanding its role in coordinating defense procurement, capability development, and crisis management.

What This Means for the Global Order

As the EU evolves, it will become a more capable actor in an unstable international environment. A stronger, more unified EU can:

• Influence global trade and climate policies

• Act as a mediator in conflicts

• Act as a counterweight to major global powers such as the US, China, and Russia.

  
  

At the same time, the EU must navigate internal divisions and external pressures carefully to maintain cohesion.